Federal budget

In the official models for projections and policy analysis (used by the Treasury, the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)), many key variables are assumed as a continuation of past trends. By contrast, in …

This report expands on a standard empirical estimation of the relationship between federal deficits and debt and long-term interest rates. It follows closely a 2019 long blog post by Ernie Tedeschi, which is itself an update and extension of Francis …